Forecasts

Ciência, Saúde, Economia, Política

Postby mends » 02 Feb 2006, 10:44

mas nego insiste em ver...

vou tentar postar forecasts de economia por aqui, mesmo sem acreditar nisso. Meu objetivo é controlar se acerta mesmo.

WESTLB PREVÊ CÂMBIO A R$ 2,00 EM ALGUNS MESES

A boa situação das contas externas deverá provocar a desvalorização do dólar, o que ajudará o governo a conter a
inflação e distender a política monetária. Para o diretor de pesquisa para mercados emergentes do banco WestLB em Nova York,
Ricardo Amorim, a maior apreciação do real ante o dólar propiciará algumas conseqüências favoráveis ao País: em meados de
março será eliminada a dívida pública indexada ao dólar. Para que isto ocorra, basta que o BC mantenha a compra de cerca de US$
200 milhões no mercado à vista e US$ 150 milhões em swaps cambiais, como detalha a primeira edição de hoje da coluna
AE-Mercado.
"I used to be on an endless run.
Believe in miracles 'cause I'm one.
I have been blessed with the power to survive.
After all these years I'm still alive."

Joey Ramone, em uma das minhas músicas favoritas ("I Believe in Miracles")
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Postby mends » 02 Feb 2006, 14:59

da FORTUNE:

Ready for $262/barrel oil?
Two of the world's most successful investors say oil will be in short supply in the coming months.
By Nelson Schwartz, FORTUNE senior writer
January 27, 2006: 4:40 PM EST


DAVOS, Switzerland (FORTUNE) - Be afraid. Be very afraid.

That's the message from two of the world's most successful investors on the topic of high oil prices. One of them, Hermitage Capital's Bill Browder, has outlined six scenarios that could take oil up to a downright terrifying $262 a barrel.

The other, billionaire investor George Soros, wouldn't make any specific predictions about prices. But as a legendary commodities player, it's worth paying heed to the words of the man who once took on the Bank of England -- and won. "I'm very worried about the supply-demand balance, which is very tight," Soros says.

"U.S. power and influence has declined precipitously because of Iraq and the war on terror and that creates an incentive for anyone who wants to make trouble to go ahead and make it." As an example, Soros pointed to the regime in Iran, which is heading towards a confrontation with the West over its nuclear power program and doesn't show any signs of compromising. "Iran is on a collision course and I have a difficulty seeing how such a collision can be avoided," he says.

Another emboldened troublemaker is Russian president Vladimir Putin, Soros said, citing Putin's recent decision to briefly shut the supply of natural gas to Ukraine. The only bit of optimism Soros could offer was that the next 12 months would be most dangerous in terms of any price shocks, because beginning in 2007 he predicts new oil supplies will come online.

Hermitage's Bill Browder doesn't yet have the stature of George Soros. But his $4 billion Moscow-based Hermitage fund rose 81.5 percent last year and is up a whopping 1780 percent since its inception a decade ago. A veteran of Salomon Bros. and Boston Consulting Group, the 41-year old Browder has been especially successful because of his contrarian take; for example, he continued to invest in Russia when others fled following the Kremlin's assault on Yukos.

Doomsdays 1 through 6
To come up with some likely scenarios in the event of an international crisis, his team performed what's known as a regression analysis, extrapolating the numbers from past oil shocks and then using them to calculate what might happen when the supply from an oil-producing country was cut off in six different situations. The fall of the House of Saud seems the most far-fetched of the six possibilities, and it's the one that generates that $262 a barrel.

More realistic -- and therefore more chilling -- would be the scenario where Iran declares an oil embargo a la OPEC in 1973, which Browder thinks could cause oil to double to $131 a barrel. Other outcomes include an embargo by Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez ($111 a barrel), civil war in Nigeria ($98 a barrel), unrest and violence in Algeria ($79 a barrel) and major attacks on infrastructure by the insurgency in Iraq ($88 a barrel).

Regressions analysis may be mathematical but it's an art, not a science. And some of these scenarios are quite dubious, like Venezuela shutting the spigot. (For more on Chavez and Venezuela, click here.)

Energy chiefs at the World Economic Forum in Davos downplayed the likelihood of a serious oil shortage. In a statement Friday, Shell's CEO Jeroen Van der Veer declared, "There is no reason for pessimism." OPEC Acting Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said "OPEC will step in at any time there is a shortage in the market." But then no one in the industry, including Van der Veer, foresaw an extended run of $65 oil -- or even $55 oil -- like we've been having.

It's clear that there is very, very little wiggle room, and that most consumers, including those in the United States, have acceded so far to the new reality of $60 or even $70 oil. And as Soros points out, the White House has its hands full in Iraq and elsewhere.

Although there are long-term answers like ethanol, what's needed is a crash conservation effort in the United States. This doesn't have to be command-and-control style. Moral suasion counts for a lot, and if the president suggested staying home with family every other Sunday or otherwise cutting back on unnecessary drives, he could please the family values crowd while also changing the psychology of the oil market by showing that the U.S. government is serious about easing any potential bottlenecks.

Similarly, he could finally get the government to tighten fuel-efficiency standards and encourage both Detroit and drivers to end decades of steadily increasing gas consumption. These kinds of steps would create a little headroom until new supplies do become available or threats like Iran's current leadership or the Iraqi insurgency fade.

It's been done it before. For all the cracks about Jimmy Carter in a cardigan and his malaise speech, America did reduce its use of oil following the price shocks of the 1970s, and laid the groundwork for low energy prices in the 1980s and 1990s. But it would require spending political capital, and offending traditional White House allies, and that's something this president doesn't seem to want to do
"I used to be on an endless run.
Believe in miracles 'cause I'm one.
I have been blessed with the power to survive.
After all these years I'm still alive."

Joey Ramone, em uma das minhas músicas favoritas ("I Believe in Miracles")
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Postby mends » 03 Feb 2006, 09:15

Currency Strategists: Brazilian Real to Slump, Dresdner Says
2006-02-03 06:32 (New York)


By Rodrigo Davies
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Brazilian real's more than three-
year rally against the U.S. dollar may stall because slowing
inflation will prompt central bankers to reduce interest rates
this year, according to Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.
Brazil's currency, the biggest gainer against the dollar
last year, has surged as the country's higher interest rates,
growing economy and slowing inflation make real-denominated
assets more attractive to international investors. Brazilian
rates are 12.75 percentage points higher than U.S. rates.
``We'll see some cooling of the support for the real, which
up until now has been huge,'' Neil Dougall, head of emerging
markets macroeconomic research at Dresdner in London, said in an
interview on Jan. 31. ``The rate easing cycle has further to run
and that will erode some of the yield attraction.''
Brazilian central bank policy makers said in the minutes of
their Jan. 17-18 meeting that they favor further reductions in
borrowing costs. The rally in the real is threatening to slow
Brazil's economy by reducing the attractiveness of the exports
from Latin America's biggest economy.
Dresdner predicts the real will drop to 2.4 per dollar in
six months, from its current level of 2.22 against the U.S.
currency. The real rose 12 percent versus the dollar last year,
bringing the three-year gain to 38 percent.
Dollar-denominated Brazilian bonds last year returned
investors 13.1 percent including reinvested interest, beating the
11.3 percent return on global emerging market debt, according to
Merrill Lynch & Co indexes. The reward for investing in Brazilian
debt was more than four times the 2.8 percent earned on U.S.
Treasuries.

Yield `Hunger'

``Last year was the story of investors hungry for yield and
willing to put a lot of money into emerging markets,'' Arnab Das,
Dresdner's global head of emerging market research, told
reporters in London on Jan. 31. ``We may not see the huge gains
of 2005 repeated this year.''
Brazil's central bank will probably cut interest rates by 2
percentage point this year, to 15.25 percent, Dresdner forecasts,
as consumer price inflation slows to 4.3 percent from 5.7 percent
in 2005.
Economists expect the annual inflation rate, which was 5.31
percent through November, to slow to 4.5 percent in 2006,
according to a central bank survey released last month.
Brazil's economy grew an estimated 2.6 percent in 2005,
according to the central bank, less than other emerging-market
countries, such as China, which grew more than 9 percent last
year.
Dresdner predicts the real may also be hurt as a stronger
real reduces exports, narrowing Brazil's trade surplus. The
surplus narrowed to its smallest in 11 months last month, the
government said Feb. 1.
"I used to be on an endless run.
Believe in miracles 'cause I'm one.
I have been blessed with the power to survive.
After all these years I'm still alive."

Joey Ramone, em uma das minhas músicas favoritas ("I Believe in Miracles")
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Postby mends » 20 Mar 2006, 13:21

Brazil Analysts See Year-End Interest Rate at 14.38% (Update1)
2006-03-20 07:57 (New York)


(Adds economist comment in third paragraph.)

By Carlos Caminada
March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Brazilian economists lowered their
year-end benchmark interest rate forecast for the first time in
three weeks as a stronger currency helps stem inflation.
Economists cut their median estimate for the benchmark rate
at the end of 2006 to 14.38 percent from 14.5 percent a week
earlier and 14.75 percent on Feb. 17, according to a survey of
about 100 economists at financial institutions taken March 17
and published today.
Brazil's rising currency is helping to slow inflation,
making room for central bankers to cut the benchmark interest
rate to a record low this year, Banco Calyon Brasil SA's Dalton
Gardimam said. The real is up 28 percent over the past year, the
best performance against the U.S. dollar of 61 currencies
tracked by Bloomberg.
``The currency has been a key factor for price stability,''
Gardimam, chief economist at Calyon in Sao Paulo, said in a
telephone interview. ``This really favors declining interest
rates.''
Policy makers on March 8 cut the benchmark interest rate
for a sixth time, trimming it 0.75 percentage point to 16.5
percent to bolster growth in Latin America's biggest economy.
The overnight rate is down 3.25 percentage points from a two-
year high in September. The rate hasn't been below 15.25 percent
since central bankers started setting it as a benchmark in 1999.
Annual inflation slowed in February after prices for
clothes and food fell. The annual inflation rate fell to 5.5
percent from 5.7 percent through January and 7.4 percent a year
earlier.
Economists kept their forecast for inflation this year at
4.55 percent, above the central bank's 4.5 percent target.
"I used to be on an endless run.
Believe in miracles 'cause I'm one.
I have been blessed with the power to survive.
After all these years I'm still alive."

Joey Ramone, em uma das minhas músicas favoritas ("I Believe in Miracles")
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Postby mends » 23 Mar 2006, 10:52

Brazil May Become Investment Grade by Mid-2007, BB DTVM Says

2006-03-23 07:21 (New York)



By Telma Marotto and Rita Nazareth

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's credit rating may be

raised to investment grade in the first half of 2007, helping to

increase demand for the country's fixed-income securities and

equities, Latin America's biggest asset manager said.

``Brazil is clearly on track toward receiving an investment

grade rating,'' Nelson Rocha Augusto, president of BB DTVM, the

asset management arm of Latin America's No. 1 bank by assets,

Banco do Brasil SA, with 161 billion reais ($74.7 billion) under

management, said in an interview in Sao Paulo. ``It's very

likely'' to happen in the first half of 2007, he said.

The country's credit rating on Feb. 28 was raised to its

highest level ever by Standard & Poor's a week after Brazil

announced a buyback of $6.6 billion of foreign bonds. S&P raised

Brazil's foreign currency debt rating to BB, two levels below

investment grade and in line with Colombia and Peru, from BB-.

The increase was the second since September 2004 and leaves

Brazil's rating at its highest since S&P initiated coverage in

1994. Moody's Investors Service in October raised the country's

rating on foreign-currency government bonds to Ba3, three levels

below investment grade, from B1.

Brazil, which defaulted on part of its external debt in

1987, is the biggest borrower among emerging-market nations,

with about $440 billion in obligations. President Luiz Inacio

Lula da Silva since his election in 2002 cut the budget deficit

to a record low in April 2005, reduced foreign debt to about

$160 billion in 2005 from $211 billion and ended sales of local

bonds linked to the foreign exchange rate.

Assets, Investment

The prospect of having lower credit risk is already

boosting demand for the country's fixed-income assets and

equities, Augusto said.

Brazil's asset management industry, worth about 850 billion

reais, currently has 13 percent invested in equities, up from

about 10 percent in 2000-2005, Augusto said. The amount invested

in shares may reach 40 percent by 2010, he said.

``A new rating changes the risk perception in the country

and would be an important trigger to accelerate and consolidate

this process that has already started,'' Augusto said. ``If we

get the investment grade in 2007 the trigger will work.''

Brazil's benchmark stock index, which has more than tripled

since Lula took office on Jan. 1, 2003, may extend gains as

economic growth, falling unemployment and rising wages push

corporate profits, Augusto said.

Retailer and consumer goods companies are well positioned

to capitalize on Brazil's expansion, he said. He also

highlighted the sugar and ethanol industry, represented by Cosan

SA Industria e Comercio, the world's No. 1 combined sugar and

ethanol producer, as well as the oil industry as likely growth

areas.

BB DTVM plans to buy more fixed-rate bonds as the central

bank gradually lowers benchmark borrowing costs. The asset

manager now has about 20 percent to 25 percent of its assets in

fixed-rate bonds, up from 15 percent to 20 percent in October

last year, Augusto said.

``As we continue to see lower risk perception for the

country as a whole, low inflation, good fiscal policies, stable

currency, this percentage tends to increase,'' Augusto said.
"I used to be on an endless run.
Believe in miracles 'cause I'm one.
I have been blessed with the power to survive.
After all these years I'm still alive."

Joey Ramone, em uma das minhas músicas favoritas ("I Believe in Miracles")
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Postby mends » 02 Jan 2007, 08:55

Economy Poised
For '07 Rebound,
Forecasters Say
Weakness in Housing,
Manufacturing Is Likely
To Take a Lighter Toll
By MARK WHITEHOUSE
January 2, 2007; Page A1

The U.S. economy is poised to shake off the housing slump and regain momentum by the end of this year, and the credit goes to techies, bankers, chefs and shoppers, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of economists.

The panel of 60 economists who participated in the Journal's latest semiannual economic forecasting survey offered an optimistic outlook for 2007: The service sector should keep humming along as the recent weakness in housing and manufacturing abates and the Federal Reserve begins to reduce interest rates. That would allow the economy to expand at a rate fast enough to keep investors happy, but slow enough to keep inflation at bay. (See related article.)

CHARTS AND FULL RESULTS



See and download forecasts for growth, housing, inflation and employment. Plus, views on the "Christmas Effect," the biggest risks to growth and predictions for the DJIA. Survey conducted Dec. 8-18.
HITTING THE MARK


U.S. Trust's Robert McGee was the most accurate forecaster in the 2006 second half. How did he climb to the top?
WSJ reporter Mark Whitehouse discusses the survey results with Mr. McGee. See the video.
MORE


Find More Online: Here is a sampling of other Web resources for tracking economists' predictions.Even so, economists haven't stopped worrying about what could happen if the current slowdowns in housing and manufacturing spread further -- a pattern that has characterized previous recessions. In another potentially ominous sign, they increasingly differ about the economy's trajectory.

On average, the economists predict that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic activity, will grow at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the first half of 2007 and 2.8% in the second half. That's up from a sluggish 2% in the third quarter of 2006, but still far below the robust annual growth rates of 3.2% for 2005 and 4.1% for early 2006.

"As long as you don't think the labor market is going to collapse or financial conditions are going to change, then you're starting to have the conditions for better growth down the road," says Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in New York.

The rapid expansion of technology companies such as Google Inc. and the huge bonuses lavished on New York investment bankers are just a couple of signs of the service sector's strength. Across the country, restaurants, hospitals, software makers and consulting firms are growing and hiring. All told, service businesses, which make up about 80% of the nation's economy, added 1.1 million jobs from May through November.

ABOUT THE SURVEY


The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 60 private-sector economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted semiannually, at midyear and at year-end. Between each semiannual survey, four monthly updates are conducted for the most closely watched forecasts. This is the semiannual survey that evaluates how economists fared in the second half of 2006 and looks ahead to 2007. For prior installments of the semiannual and monthly surveys, see: WSJ.com/Economists."We've been extremely busy," says Anthony Kolton, president and chief executive of Logical Information Machines, a Chicago company that provides research software to hedge funds, trading firms and investment banks. "There's a lot of money out there, and people have to put it to work."

The upbeat attitude in services contrasts sharply with the recent pain in the housing and manufacturing sectors. Builders have been slashing prices and production as they attempt to get rid of a large backlog of unsold homes. Despite a rise in November, new-home construction was down 30% from its January peak.

Housing-related industries shed 145,000 jobs from May though November, according to Zoltan Pozsar, an economist at Moody's Economy.com. Falling home values have also left people with less power to extract cash from their homes through home-equity loans and refinancings, a factor that many economists expect to take a bite out of consumer spending.

Along with slumping auto sales, the drop in housing activity has affected all kinds of manufacturers, from drywall factories to furniture makers. The Institute for Supply Management, a purchasing managers' trade group, said that its index of manufacturing activity for November fell to 49.5, the lowest point since April 2003. (Any number below 50 indicates contraction.) By contrast, the ISM's index of service-sector activity for the same month rose.

"It's really two very different economies, depending on whether you're looking at the goods or service industries," says J.P. Morgan's Mr. Kasman.


The bottom line is that the strength in services will help to keep the job market relatively healthy. In the consensus scenario, nonfarm businesses will add about 100,000 jobs a month in 2007. That should be strong enough to slowly lift wages, but not to keep the unemployment rate from creeping up to 4.9% from 4.5% in November.

The economists surveyed expect year-to-year inflation to decline to 1.7% in May from 2.0% in November. As a result, they expect the Fed to shift its focus from fighting inflation to helping the economy grow, lowering short-term interest rates to 4.75% by the end of 2007 from the current 5.25%.

That's a big change from six months ago, when forecasters saw the Fed's battle with inflation as the greatest challenge facing the economy. "The Fed was hoping to slow the economy down enough to take the wind out of inflation without triggering a recession," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at consulting firm Global Insight in Waltham, Mass. "So far it looks like it has succeeded."

Most forecasters expect 2007 to be a good -- not great -- year for the economy. While six in 10 said they think the worst of the housing downturn's impact on the broader economy had passed, they still see a deeper housing slump as the biggest risk looming over the economy. That concern was reflected in the odds they placed on a recession in the next 12 months, which rose to 27% from 20% in June.

More so than in recent surveys, forecasters differ on the economic outlook. One measure of their disagreement -- the standard deviation of their forecasts for inflation-adjusted GDP for the coming half year -- widened to about 0.7 percentage point in December, up from a 20-year low of 0.5 percentage point in June. Each of the past two recessions have been preceded by sharp increases in the deviation measure -- to levels greater than one.

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at consulting firm High Frequency Economics and one of the survey's most pessimistic forecasters, places the odds of a recession at one in two. He believes that home construction still has a long way to fall before it levels off with demand, and that the Fed's rate increases, which helped push corporate borrowing costs upward by about a full percentage point between fall 2005 and spring 2006, have yet to take their full toll on business activity. Mr. Shepherdson expects real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 0.5% in the first half of 2007 and 2.25% in the second half.


"It's going to be worse than the consensus expects," he says. "My guess is that we'll probably avoid a recession, but by the skin of our teeth."

Most other forecasters believe the economy will prove more resilient. For one, stronger growth abroad should help boost U.S. exports: More than three out of four forecasters pointed to Asia as the biggest contributor to global growth in 2007.

Beyond that, money remains easy to borrow despite the Fed's efforts to raise interest rates. Global investors' appetite for U.S. bonds has helped fuel a boom in mergers and acquisitions, and low long-term interest rates have kept mortgages accessible for potential home buyers. Even people with shaky credit, whose tendency to default has proved greater than many investors expected, still have access to money.

"We've had a remarkably benign credit environment," says Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. "That's partly a tribute to our flexible and resilient capital markets, but I think it's also just plain good luck."

To some extent, the hit U.S. manufacturing has taken in recent years has made the sector's outlook less consequential today because there just aren't as many American manufacturing jobs left to lose, says Ed Leamer, head of the forecasting center at the University of California's Anderson School of Management. Manufacturing has been shedding jobs since the recession of 2001.

"There's no fat to trim," says Mr. Leamer. "And without the trimming of fat in manufacturing, you just can't get the job loss that can add up to a recession."
"I used to be on an endless run.
Believe in miracles 'cause I'm one.
I have been blessed with the power to survive.
After all these years I'm still alive."

Joey Ramone, em uma das minhas músicas favoritas ("I Believe in Miracles")
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Postby Danilo » 20 Dec 2007, 15:40

Financial Times ou Lula?

Os mercados dos países emergentes passaram praticamente incólumes à crise neste ano, mas enfrentarão seu verdadeiro teste de força em 2008, quando as condições da economia mundial devem piorar, afirma artigo publicado nesta quinta-feira pelo diário britânico "Financial Times".

"Uma das características mais notáveis da atual turbulência no mercado de crédito tem sido a espetacular performance dos mercados emergentes --e sua resistência em meio a uma das mais graves crises financeiras da história recente", diz o jornal.

O "Financial Times" afirma então que "o verdadeiro teste para a recém conseguida força do setor virá no próximo ano, quando as condições econômicas e de mercado globais devem piorar".

Segundo o jornal, "há razões para ficar otimista". "A atual crise, ao contrário de muitas no passado, foi originada no mundo financeiro ocidental, não nos mercados emergentes, que vêm desfrutando de uma alta constante por cinco anos", diz o artigo.

Já o Lula disse ter "certeza de que [a economia] vai crescer mais um pouquinho". "Pode ser 5,5%, 6% ou 6,5%. O que eu posso garantir ao povo brasileiro é que em 2008 [o crescimento] vai ser maior que neste ano e em 2009, vai ser maior que em 2008."

(colagem de folha.uol.com.br/folha/bbc e folha.uol.com.br/folha/dinheiro)
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economic superpower?

Postby Danilo » 23 Apr 2008, 13:40

An economic superpower, and now oil too
Oil could transform Brazil's economy. But not necessarily for the better

The legend is that Brazil never lives up to its vast potential. When Stefan Zweig, an exiled Austrian writer, said in 1941 of his new home that it was the “country of the future”, popular humour quickly added the rider “and it always will be”.

In the past decade and a half under reforming democratic governments, Brazil has conquered inflation, opened a protected economy to the world and begun to tackle its social problems. Poverty and inequality are falling steadily. Under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the left came to power in 2002 and, to the surprise of some, maintained its commitment to economic stability and openness.

All this has gradually created a new mood among business people. Brazilian companies, traditionally inward-looking family-owned affairs, are going to the stockmarket to raise funds, in many cases to finance expansion abroad. Some, such as Vale, the world's second-biggest mining company, and Embraer, its third-largest maker of civilian aircraft, both privatised in the 1990s, are well-known. A string of others are about to become so. Outsiders have caught the mood: foreign direct investment reached a record $34.6 billion last year.

Many of these companies are linked to agribusiness or other primary commodities. One reason to worry that Brazil is again flattering only to deceive is that it has been a huge beneficiary of high commodity prices—that same trend that is pushing up the cost of food around the world. Strip out this cyclical stimulus and the country's performance would look less sprightly. But some economists argue that Brazil is the beneficiary of a structural shift, in which the industrialisation of Asia and the rise of a new middle class in the developing world will keep commodity prices high. Besides, Brazil produces more than just soyabeans. It has a lot of manufacturing industry too. And its newly discovered offshore fields of oil and natural gas may turn out to be bigger than those in the North Sea in the 1960s.

Oil wealth is lovely, of course. But it is also a cause for concern. Brazil's currency, the real, has already soared to levels that make manufacturers wince. If it becomes a petro-currency, many factories will be forced to close unless the needlessly high costs of doing business in Brazil are slashed. Moreover, the most impressive economic achievements of Brazil as a democracy have tended to come when the government has had little room to manoeuvre.

The worry now is that a bonanza of oil will weaken an already infirm resolve to drill deeper into the economy's structural problems. These difficulties include an oppressive tax system and a labour code that makes firms wary of hiring. Between them these have confined some 40% of the workforce to the informal economy. Though he needs to spend much more on infrastructure, Lula has squandered a chunk of record tax revenues on padding the public payroll.

An oil gusher could also sharpen Brazil's already voracious appetite for the politics of the pork barrel. Lula has done much to make Brazil's democracy more genuine. But he was re-elected in 2006 despite a corruption scandal that would have felled a politician of lesser skills. Since then he has basked in popularity derived from sunny economic times and well-designed social policies. The danger is complacency. Compared with its past, Brazil is indeed doing much better. But before oil euphoria kicks in, Brazil's leaders should ask themselves why so many other countries have made bigger returns from a much smaller natural endowment.

(From Economist.com)
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Crise no Brasil

Postby Danilo » 09 Oct 2008, 00:26

Os mercados dos países emergentes passaram praticamente incólumes à crise neste ano, mas enfrentarão seu verdadeiro teste de força em 2008, quando as condições da economia mundial devem piorar, afirma artigo publicado nesta quinta-feira pelo diário britânico "Financial Times".
(...)
Já o Lula disse ter "certeza de que [a economia] vai crescer mais um pouquinho". "Pode ser 5,5%, 6% ou 6,5%. O que eu posso garantir ao povo brasileiro é que em 2008 [o crescimento] vai ser maior que neste ano e em 2009, vai ser maior que em 2008."


FMI reduz previsão de crescimento do Brasil em 2009

O governo brasileiro vem afirmando que o país está preparado para lidar com a crise que tomou conta do sistema bancário americano. É tido com certo, porém, que nenhum país não está imune.

Os chamados BRICs estão penalizados nas revisões do FMI para crescimento do PIB em 2009. Além do Brasil, cuja previsão cedeu de 4,00% (estimada em julho) para 3,5%, o FMI reduziu a previsão para o PIB chinês no ano que vem de 9,8% para 9,3%.O PIB projetado para a China em 2008 foi mantido nos 9,7% estimados em julho, mas está bem abaixo da taxa de 11,9% registrada em 2007. Também para 2009, o FMI reduziu a expectativa para o PIB da Rússia de 7,3% para 5,5%. Para 2008, a projeção para o PIB do país foi cortada para 7,0% neste ano, ante 7,7% estimados em julho.

Para a Índia, o FMI cortou as projeções do crescimento econômico em 2009 de 8% projetados em julho para 6,9%. Para 2008, a projeção foi revista também de 8% para 7,9%. O FMI reduziu o crescimento do PIB projetado para os emergentes de 6,7% para 6,1% em 2009, de acordo com o documento Perspectiva Econômica Mundial (WEO, na sigla em inglês). Para 2008, a projeção para os países emergentes foi mantida nos 6,9% projetados em julho - o número permanece abaixo dos 8,0% de 2007. Ao mesmo tempo em que o FMI vê desaceleração para economias emergentes, reconhece que a expansão global será conduzida pelo crescimento nas economias emergentes e em desenvolvimento.

(comparando post do último dezembro com trecho de texto de ontem do estadao.com.br)
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Danilo
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Re: Forecasts

Postby Danilo » 17 Nov 2009, 23:24

Eu acho improvável. O correio normal não morreu. Porque o eletrônico bateria as botas?

E-mail deve morrer em 10 anos, diz pesquisa britânica

Um estudo da Universidade de Kent, na Inglaterra, constatou que o e-mail deve ser extinto. A ferramenta de comunicação mais tradicional da web deve perder lugar para outras plataformas, como Twitter, Facebook, Orkut, MySpace, e programas de mensagens instantâneas, como o MSN.

"Embora seja a ferramenta dominante há 20 anos, o e-mail, como conhecemos hoje, deve morrer em apenas 10 anos", enfatizou o professor David Zeitlyn, autor da pesquisa.

O levantamento, realizado em parceria com a empresa de internet TalkTalk, mostra que os jovens britânicos têm mostrado interesse em formas de comunicação eletrônica mais dinâmicas. Para esta geração, os e-mails são lentos, pouco convidativos, invasivos e inconvenientes.

As redes sociais, ao contrário, permitem que as pessoas enviem mensagens para um grupo de contatos ao mesmo tempo, além de proporcionarem um retorno rápido e conciso. Outra vantagem desses novos aplicativos é a possibilidade de utilizá-los por meio de outras interfaces tecnológicas, como o celular. A mobilidade que tais programas oferecem tornam o e-mail um meio de comunicação obsoleto, facilmente substituível.

Ainda de acordo com a pesquisa, somente 51% dos adolescentes e jovens disseram utilizar o e-mail como a primeira opção na hora de enviar uma mensagem eletrônica. O serviço é o mais usado por pessoas entre 45 e 65 anos.

(notícia original em http://veja.abril.com.br/noticia/cienci ... 2845.shtml)
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